Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
Explores retirement drawdowns across thousands of market scenarios. Choose Percentage Withdrawal if you’re in Australia as it includes adjustable superannuation minimum drawdown rules.
Australian Super Minimum Withdrawal Rates:
| Age | Minimum % | Min $ (at start bal) | Min $ (at target bal) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60-64 | % | -- | -- |
| 65-74 | % | -- | -- |
| 75-79 | % | -- | -- |
| 80-84 | % | -- | -- |
| 85-89 | % | -- | -- |
| 90-94 | % | -- | -- |
| 95+ | % | -- | -- |
Withdrawals calculated as % of balance at start of each year, increasing with age
Lognormal: samples geometric returns (more realistic for long horizons). Calibrates underlying log-parameters to match entered arithmetic mean/variance where possible.
Student-t: heavy-tailed shocks for stress testing; controlled by the 'Student-t df' parameter.
Inflation Adjustment: With 2.5% CPI, your $126,000 withdrawal will grow to $-- by year 30 to maintain purchasing power.
Final Balance Distribution
Balance Range Over Time
Dark blue line: Median outcome (50% of simulations above/below)
Blue shaded area: Middle 50% of outcomes (25th-75th percentile)
Light blue area: 80% of outcomes fall within this range (10th-90th percentile)
Probability of Success By Year
What % of simulations still have money left at each year
What This Means
Technical Notes:
Configure your parameters above and click Run Simulations
The simulator will test your withdrawal strategy across thousands of possible market scenarios